The Economist explains
Is there a Christmas tree shortage in America?
Despite reports of supply-chain headaches, shoppers who want a tree will get one
ROB DILLON has had to turn some customers away. He has sold Christmas trees in Atlanta, Georgia since 1993, but this year certain types—particularly eight-to-ten-footers—are in short supply. “We don’t have what they want,” Mr Dillon laments. Around 100m households in America will decorate their perfect Fraser Fir or Scotch Pine (be it real, like those sold by Mr Dillon, or plastic) this year. Many people are worried by headlines warning of a shortage of trees. Are there enough to go around?
One cause for concern is the supply-chain crunch, induced by the pandemic, that has made lots of products harder to come by. Increased shipping costs and backlogs at ports pose a much bigger threat to the supply of artificial trees than live ones. Eighty-five per cent of trees put up in American households last year were fake; most of these are imported from China. As early as September, the American Christmas Tree Association, a trade group, warned that there may be fewer faux firs available this year.
Supply-chain snarl-ups have a smaller effect on live trees. Most are grown domestically; almost every state produces them, but Michigan, North Carolina and Oregon grow the most. Rising freight costs might make trees slightly more expensive, especially in smaller or more remote places, but that is unlikely to stop many people from getting one. Extreme weather events have had a bigger impact on the supply of live trees, at least in some regions. A June heatwave in the Pacific north-west resulted in around a 10% reduction in the area’s Christmas-tree harvest, according to Doug Hundley of the National Christmas Tree Association. Wildfires in the western US and Canada (which ships trees across the border) also killed off some of the annual harvest, and in Eastern Canada a dry spring and autumn lowered yields too. Some losses are always to be expected; of around 2,000 trees typically planted per acre, between half and three-quarters usually survive. But such poor weather is tricky to plan for.
A deep economic downturn has also reduced the number of real trees available—though not the downturn caused by the pandemic. Amid the Great Recession of 2008-09, cash-strapped Americans bought fewer trees. As a result some growers went out of business, while others planted fewer seedlings. Christmas trees can take as long as 15 years to mature, resulting in fewer trees coming to market today.
Even so, buyers pining for a Christmas tree need not panic. Americans who want one, Mr Hundley assures them, will get one. They may have to spend a bit more: the cost of a live tree has risen by 5-10% this year, in line with the past several years, and sellers of artificial trees have reported raising their prices by as much as 30%. And people may not get their perfect tree. Stories about shortages have sparked a rush to buy trees, meaning that popular heights and varieties are selling out quickly, as Mr Dillon’s customers have found. Mr Hundley says the first week of December is the best time to buy one. But even those who have left it late are unlikely to find themselves without a tree to stash their presents under.
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