The World Ahead 2022
Will pre-pandemic behaviour ever return?
Our global normalcy index suggests that some changes are here to stay
When the coronavirus pandemic began in 2020 no one knew for how long life would be disrupted. At the peak of restrictions, about 3.6bn people were subject to mandatory stay-at-home orders. Society was swift to adapt: working and learning from home, and communicating in novel ways. Talk shifted to when, and if at all, life would return to “normal”. The creation of effective vaccines has now made normalcy possible, but how much of pre-pandemic behaviour has actually returned?
To measure what has changed The Economist has devised a “normalcy index”. First, it measures how transport use has changed across three different modes: flights, roads and public transport. Second, it measures the change in leisure time using cinema box-office takings, attendances at professional sports events and time spent outside home. Last, our index captures commercial activity through footfall in shops and offices.
For each of our eight measures, we compare activity with its pre-pandemic level, averaging the changes in each of the three categories, then averaging the grouped results for our overall index. Our global figure is the population-weighted average of 50 countries—which together account for 75% of the world’s population and 90% of world gdp—where 100 is equivalent to pre-pandemic behaviour.
Unsurprisingly, our index plummeted at the beginning of 2020, falling from 80 at the beginning of March 2020—restrictions in China meant that normalcy had already declined—to just 35 by mid-April 2020. In 2021 the index rose slowly but steadily from 60 in January to 79 by mid-October, suggesting the world was about two-thirds back to pre-pandemic levels of activity.
Leading the way is Denmark, one of five countries where behaviour is within five points of pre-pandemic levels. America is ranked mid-table, alongside many European countries.
Observing our normalcy index over the past 18 months allows us to make some inferences about what lies ahead. Countries that have inoculated the majority of their adults should be able to allow normal life to return. If, among our 50 countries, covid-19 deaths fall by half from their September 2021 average, vaccination rates continue to rise in line with recent trends and government restrictions are eased further, we can expect our index to rise to about 90 points.
For some measures, falling infections and rising injections appear to be a necessary but not sufficient condition for pre-pandemic behaviour to return. Digging into the data explains why. Three of our measures of behaviour—flights, cinemas and sporting attendance—have been curtailed by government bans. Activity among our remaining five indicators has been affected more by individual or organisational decisions and, since the most severe restrictions have been lifted, they are no longer influenced by government actions. Globally, retail footfall is now above pre-pandemic norms, and time spent outside the home is near normal too, as people venture out again.
Yet working from home is now commonplace. Even if infections fall and injections rise, our model suggests office occupancy will not rise much further—and cinema attendance will reach only about 80% of its pre-pandemic level. Some changes are here to stay.
James Fransham: Data correspondent, The Economist■
This article appeared in the Graphic detail section of the print edition of The World Ahead 2022 under the headline “Will pre-pandemic behaviour ever return?”