The Economist explains
What will the covid-19 pandemic look like in 2022?
Immunity and treatment options will increase—but poor countries will lose out
THE ECONOMIST’S modelling suggests that covid-19 has killed between 10.8m and 20m people, with a best estimate of 17.3m thus far. In most rich countries vaccines are breaking the link between infections and deaths, and restrictions have eased. In other places, such as eastern Europe, deaths are rising amid a new wave of infections. What should the world expect next year?
The virus will not be eradicated. Only one disease, smallpox, has ever been eliminated. Instead, global immunity will increase as more people are vaccinated or contract covid-19. Some 3.8bn have had at least one jab and 2.8bn are fully vaccinated. Together with those who have caught the disease, around half the world’s population has some level of immunity. Eventually, covid-19 will become endemic: transmission will remain at a steady rate, following seasonal patterns, with fewer spikes in infection. The harm caused may end up somewhere between that of influenza, which kills an estimated 300,000 to 650,000 people annually, and of other coronaviruses, such as the common cold. But endemicity is still a long way off for most countries. Deaths in eastern Europe show the risks in places where vaccination rates remain low. In a best-case scenario, covid-19 could begin to follow a seasonal pattern by 2025. But it will take decades for people to become as immune to it as they are to the common cold.
In the meantime, vaccines and treatments will continue to lower the burden of the disease. By the second half of 2022 there will probably be a glut of jabs, according to Airfinity, a provider of life-sciences data. Rich countries will race ahead, while poorer countries struggle to distribute jabs (though promising innovations such as freeze-dried mRNA vaccines could help). That pattern is already becoming entrenched. A surfeit of shots will mean that booster jabs are increasingly used and more children will receive vaccines, some of them beginning at just six months. MRNA jabs, such as the Pfizer BioNtech and Moderna shots, which are proving more successful against the now-dominant Delta variant, will become more favoured. Companies will develop innovative new vaccines: Moderna is working on a shot designed to protect against multiple strains of covid-19, and is researching a “pan-respiratory” vaccine that could protect against influenza and a range of coronaviruses.
For those who catch covid, oral antivirals, taken in pill form, and injectable drugs are joining existing treatments such as remdesivir, which is administered in hospitals via a drip. The wider availability of treatments for covid will improve outcomes, further breaking the link between cases, hospitalisation and death. Molnupiravir, developed by Merck and Ridgeback, two pharmaceutical companies, will arrive first—10m doses should be available by the end of 2021.
Looming over these positive developments is the prospect of mutation. Delta has become the dominant variant of covid-19 because it is highly transmissible. It has almost entirely supplanted Beta, an earlier variant that was better at defeating immunity but less good at spreading. The biggest risk to progress against the pandemic in 2022 would be the emergence of a new variant combining the worst characteristics of Delta and Beta. The world must hope that science provides the tools to finally outsmart covid.
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