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The climate has overtaken covid-19 as German voters’ top concern

But that hasn’t especially helped the Greens

ON SUNDAY GERMANS head to the polls to elect a new parliament—and hence a successor to their chancellor, Angela Merkel. Many of them, it seems, have not yet made up their minds how to vote. A recent survey by the Allensbach institute, a research group, for the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung found that 40% were undecided. The lack of an incumbent, a slate of uninspiring candidates and a disappointing campaign may go some way to explaining why. Yet for all their ambivalence about the parties on the ballot, German voters are remarkably unified about the two issues they care about most. A regular survey by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, a pollster, asks respondents to choose the two most important issues to them out of 12 facing the country, from social policy to the economy. Climate change topped the most recent list, cited by 43% of respondents, followed by the coronavirus (38%). Refugees, pensions and inequality, trailed far behind; all were in the top two for about one-tenth of respondents.

The environment has thus reclaimed the top spot it held in 2019-20 briefly before the coronavirus struck (see chart). Since July, when severe flooding killed more than 180 people in western Germany, the environment and climate change have become the primary concern once more. Past data from Forschungsgruppe Wahlen suggest that until 2019 the environment was not at the front of voters’ minds. Between 2000 and 2014, unemployment dominated the agenda. From 2014 to 2019, refugees became by far the biggest issue after Germany opened its borders to about 1.3m people from the Middle East and Africa.

The parties are eager to tout their environmental bona fides. The use of the word “climate” has roughly doubled in the party manifestos for the Greens, the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) since the last election in 2017; it has quadrupled for the conservative bloc of the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian ally, the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU). The Greens, unsurprisingly, have the most ambitious climate plans: they seek to phase out all fossil fuels by 2035. The CDU/CSU, SPD and FDP focus on policies that target emissions-trading, green transport and renewable energy. The CDU/CSU and SPD, the two biggest parties in the Bundestag, both promise “climate neutrality” by 2045, a target already set by parliament in June. The right-wing Alternative for Germany is the only party that questions whether climate change is real and man-made.

With so many parties making climate promises—and with other priorities lurking in voters’ minds—concern about the environment has not especially helped the Greens. The horse race has been dogged by petty squabbling among party leaders, personal blunders and scandals. The Greens briefly led the polls in May, but Annalena Baerbock, their candidate for chancellor, squandered their lead when she was accused of plagiarism. Armin Laschet, the candidate for Mrs Merkel’s CDU/CSU, has been plagued by gaffes. According to Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, almost twice as many people want to see the SPD’s Olaf Scholz become chancellor as favour Mr Laschet.

The polls are close and our election model says the outcome is still highly uncertain. No party is expected to win a majority and Germany may be governed by a rare, three-way coalition. The Greens and the FDP may be the real winners, as they are both likely to return to government, either in a “traffic-light” coalition (led by the SPD) or a “Jamaica” combination (headed by the CDU/CSU) coalitions. The parties’ green credentials are unlikely to be the decisive factor in the election. But after it, green politics are sure to feature in coalition negotiations.