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America’s pandemic is now an outlier in the rich world
Its daily toll of excess deaths is greater than in all other high-income countries combined
Although covid-19 vaccines are still scarce in poor countries, rich ones enjoy a plentiful supply. In the European Union, nearly three-quarters of adults have been fully vaccinated. In Britain the figure exceeds 80%. And as vaccination rates have climbed, deaths have fallen. In the EU, daily deaths in excess of those in normal years have tumbled by more than 90% since their peak in November. In Britain, they are down by 95% since January, to just less than one per 1m people.
There is, however, one big exception to this story. America is recording nearly 2,000 covid-19 deaths a day, according to a seven-day average compiled by Johns Hopkins University. That is only 40% below the country’s January peak. But the true death toll is even worse. The Economist’s excess-deaths model, which estimates the difference between the actual and the expected number of deaths recorded in a given period, suggests that America is suffering 2,800 pandemic deaths per day, with a plausible range of 900 to 3,300, compared with 1,000 (150 to 3,000) in all other high-income countries, as defined by the World Bank. Adjusting for population, the death rate is now about eight times higher in America than in the rest of the rich world.
A slowdown in vaccinations in the country is largely to blame. In America, vaccines have been widely available to all adults since mid-April. Yet today, more than five months later, only 67% of those aged 18 or over are fully vaccinated, according to the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention. In some states, less than half have received their full doses. Surveys suggest that, although some Americans might be persuaded to get a jab, others are adamantly against it. The latest weekly poll from YouGov, carried out on behalf of The Economist, finds that 16% of American adults, including 12% of those over 65, say they will not get vaccinated.
The latest wave may now be starting to abate: cases, which typically precede deaths by about two weeks, are on the decline. But the virus is not going away. America’s antipathy to vaccines and continued resistance to other interventions, particularly among Republicans, is worrying. YouGov’s poll indicates that, among those who voted for Donald Trump in 2020, 31% say they will not get vaccinated, 71% strongly disapprove of President Joe Biden’s vaccine mandate and nearly 40% never wear a face mask. That remains a deadly combination. ■